The emerging discourse on Hydro-politics and its relevance (Part-I)
Review of the famous book “Water: Asia’s New battleground” by Brahma Chellaney
The battles of yesterday were over land
The battles of today are over energy
The battles of tomorrow may be over water
Background
Water stress has become Asia’s defining crisis of the twenty-first century that has become an obstacle to rapid economic growth and stocking tension over the shared resources and extraordinary longtime territorial disputes. The major competitors over water in Asia are India and China. It is the economic and population size of both Asian powers, which is compelling them to battle for the control of major water reservoirs. For instance, China is building mega water projects in the Tibetan Plateau and it has also built dam on the Brahmaputra River. Likewise, China is also a leading competitor for water resources in the Himalayan region with high stakes and legal upper-hand. Similarly, China’s Great South-North water transfer project is the largest of its kind in the world history. Hence, it has become clear that it is not geopolitics rather hydro-politics, which is going to determine the security architecture in Asia.
Major River Basins in the region
1. The Amu Darya River Basin
2. The Mekong River Basin (there are major plans to construct major dams on Mekong River)
3. The Brahmaputra River Basin (There is a proposal to re-route the Brahmaputra River)
4. The Syr Darya River Basin
5. The Amur River Basin
6. The Irtysh River Basin
7. The Salween River Basin
8. The Ganges River Basin
Introduction
In the recent decades, water has emerged as a key political determinant that could define Asia’s future cooperation and competition. Though, Asia hosts Three-fifth of the world population but it has the lowest per-capita fresh water availability among all continents. Consequently, the fact cannot be denied that Asia will host more than half of the population of the globe by 2050. In this regard, the interconnected water, energy, and food sectors are set to come under the growing strain. Hence, it seems that the future of Asia will be shaped by hydro-politics not geopolitics that will determine cooperation and competition among the major powers in the region.
Hydro-politics means rising competition over water
In the last two decades, the major economies in Asia are booming at a greater pace but with critical border and territorial disputes. Basically, the territorial battles among the major economic powers such as India and China merely aims at controlling resources such as water, energy and trade routes. The territorial disputes and turf war among the major powers in Asia are rooted in colonial era and are cold-war legacy. As a matter of fact, in the recent years water has become a major resource and a key factor behind the territorial disputes among major powers in Asia — consequently, the future of politics in Asia will be determined by water and peace. [1]
As an illustration, in the coming decades, it seems that the tensions might arise over the international waters such as Amu Darya, Syr Darya, Brahmaputra, Mekong, Salween, Indus, Jordan, Tigris, Euphrates and Amur. Similarly, it is a vivid fact that Tibet is Asia’s largest water repository, water supplier and rainmaker. In this respect, it is a strategic area for all Asian countries — Thus, Tibet has a central role as the major supplier of water on the Asian map. Hence, the water politics (hydro-politics) in Asia in the coming decades a major security challenge.
On the contrary, at the broader strategic domain, Asia as a densely populated region might suffer from resources, environmental and security challenges. Especially, the fastest growing economies in Asia are the water stressed and there is a lack of “security architecture” in Asia. Moreover, there are major disputed and occupied territories are at the heart of the geopolitical tensions in Asia ranging from Kashmir, Tibet, Golan Heights to West Bank.[2] These disputed/occupied region are strategically valuable because of their water wealth and advantageous location.
As an illustration, China’s new assertive claim on Arunchal Pradesh (China calls it Southern Tibet) is because of the rich water resources in the region. Similarly, some major areas in the Asian region are also suffering from the separatist unrest and conflicts. For instance, Kyrgyzstan’s Fergana Valley, and Turkey’s Kurdish Southeastern part — both regions are strategically located and rich in water resources. Likewise, Asia’s largest water flows come from the China’s controlled territories, which indeed serve as lifeline. Basically, from the China’s controlled territories water is flowing to various countries in Eurasia i:e Russia, India, Kazakhstan and Vietnam. In this respect, no country in the world can compete with China’s position as multi-directional and transboundary water provider.
But the fact cannot be denied that China’s water rich region are suffering from the separatist conflicts. For instance, Xinjiang, Tibetan Plateau, Inner Mongolia and Manchuria are also suffering from separatist conflicts. Basically, it is the diversion of water from the international routes to other regions of China, which is fueling ethnic conflicts in these regions. As a matter of fact, in Asia there is a transboundary geopolitical competition among major powers over the transboundary river basin. [3] As a result, water has become an important commodity in the Asian continent because of the dense-population.
The geostrategic dilemma
Although, at the moment the countries in Asia are postponing the day of the reckoning but the rising geostrategic political dilemma has raised the specter of Water Wars 1 (WW1). Similarly, there are also many issues related to the environment such as shrinking forests, wet lands, and large scale water pollution that might further exacerbate water tensions in Asia. Likewise, the global warming is also threatening glacier reservoirs — because the glaciers are melting at faster pace. As a matter of fact, it is the Asia’s economic boom zones, which might suffer from the scarcity of the water resources — the real scarcity. Perhaps, it is the growing water-Scarcity in the Asian region which is sharpening hydro-politics in Asia. Factually speaking, in the present time, India and China are hosting 37% of the world population and the total water it possess is 10.8%.[4]
Since the 1980s, there have been severe decline in the per-capita availability of the water resources. Basically, it is the water thirst that is threatening the international security environment in the Asian context. Another major issue is the riparian state dominance over the existing water reservoirs. For instance, China’s Great South-North water transfer project. As riparian state, China is exerting a huge influence over the Brahmaputra water basin. Moreover, China is also focusing on hydro-engineering in order to overcome the rising need of water.
The growing water stress and scarcity in Asia is fueling tensions in both intra and inter-state sphere. Now, it has become a vivid fact that water will shape the future economic and political life in Asia. Whereas, the intra-state tensions seem much violent than the inter-state conflict. Hence, in order to overcome these mounting and burning challenges, there is a need of institutionalized water sharing. The point to ponder here is that once water become a political and diplomatic battleground then it would have an exact geopolitical cost. To tackle the huge geopolitical cost, the cooperative institutional mechanism must be developed to deal with the water crisis. Moreover, the hydro engineering projects developed by the upper stream nation might use it as political tool against the downstream nations.
[1] Water is also a major factors behind disputes among the major powers in the Middle East especially between Israel and its Arab neighbors. For instance, in the recent years Jordan is planning to save the dying Dead Sea through a 178 km long canal.
[2] Due to mounting disputes in major regions the permanent International Commissions have been established to resolve these conflicts, which includes Mekong Commission, Indus water Commission, and Israeli-Palestinian joint Committee for the West Bank
[3] Only in case of Jordan and Israel, Water is serving as peace guarantee because the water arrangements were spelled out in the Annex II of the 1994 Peace Treaty.
[4] For instance, the rising grain crisis or scarcity is threatening the population. Likewise, the situation of clean water accessibility has worsen in the recent years.
